🧘‍♂️ALERT: 2 Crypto Mysteries

Market Meditations | February 18, 2022

Dear Meditators

Geopolitical tension is the theme of the day.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict seems to have created a risk-off sentiment.

We see this not only in the sell-off in BTC but the sell-off in the S&P 500 (risk asset).

On the other hand, investors are flocking to gold, a perceived safe-haven asset.

Today’s Meditations: 

  • Top Headlines
  • BTC and FTM Technical Analysis
    • Our 2 Crypto Mysteries!
  • Latest on AVAX
  • Severe Policies in Canada

⏰ Top Headlines

? Can You (BT)See A Pattern?


Macro Structure: Currently experiencing a test of key psychological level at $40k as well as a test of the 30 Day Moving Average.

Key Support: $40k is our key support level.

Key Resistance: We tried to test the previous lower high (key market structure level) at $45k and it was rejected significantly.

Highest Probability Bet: Below $40k we go back to a bearish trend. Above $40k we enter a bearish-neutral trend. Seems probable that we will test the 100 Day Moving Average at some point. At the time being, a bullish stance is premature.


Macro Structure: Appears on the verge of a breakdown. Just had a crossover of the 30 and 100 Day Moving Averages as well as a progression of three lower highs continually getting weaker.

Highest Probability Bet: If we lose the current support of $1.9, likely to see a steep drop to at least $1.5 and even $1.3.

? Skiing Uphill

Ethereum’s gas fees have constituted the need for alternative layer 1 solutions for quite some time. Solana stole the spotlight for a while in this arena, but don’t sleep on Avalanche.

  • A new cross-chain bridge from Umbria Network has appeared, accommodating users desiring to transfer liquidity between the Ethereum and Avalanche blockchains.
  • Dubbed Narni, Umbria’s new bridge promises to offer transactions at 10% of fees compared to Avalanche’s native bridge.
  • Narni claims that by using single-asset liquidity pools and a custom oracle protocol, computational complexity is significantly reduced, enabling it to drastically cut the cost of transferring ERC-20 and ERC-721 tokens between networks.
  • By offering compatibility with multiple virtual machines, the Avalanche network offers a broad array of sub-chains the opportunity to integrate.
  • AVAX, Avalanche’s native token, surged in price from Saturday to Wednesday, coming close to recapturing the $100 mark before cooling off, even amongst market uncertainty.

Though Ethereum’s inevitable march toward in-house solutions promised in 2.0 continues, crypto markets can be fickle, and patience is a virtue that some may not possess.

Meanwhile, Avalanche is reaping the rewards of immediate demand.

? The Cost of the Freedom Convoy

Earlier this week the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, told his caucus that he would invoke a never before used Emergencies Act. The emergency in question is the ‘Freedom Convoy,’ a protest started in January after vaccines for cross-border truckers were mandated.

  • Banks and other financial entities (credit unions, loan companies, and even cryptocurrency platforms) must stop providing financial services to any person associated with the protest.
  • Banks will have immunity against any legal action that may be brought against them for freezing accounts or denying services, even if the person in question was not affiliated with the protest.
  • The government claims they are doing this to prevent damage to trade but many fear that this will ‘radicalize’ a group that already thinks the government has overstepped its boundaries.
  • Some unplanned consequences of the account freezes and suspensions will certainly be unpaid child support and alimony payments from the male-dominated trucker profession.

When the Emergency Act was first mentioned by Trudeau many had hoped that it would be a catalyst for more crypto adoption. While that could still be the case, digital assets and cryptocurrency providers were included in the Emergencies Act.

  1. Watch our How to Get Rich Trading Crypto Course if you struggled with today’s technical section.
  2. Read the following Technical Analysis guides for more insight:
    1. Moving Averages 
    2. Fibonacci Retracement  
    3. Volume and Open Interest  

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??‍♂️✍️ Stories in this newsletter were written by D. Beverly, Kyle F., Max P., Nick T., Kimia K., Ellen B. and Koroush AK. Graphics were produced by Ellen B.

Not financial or tax advice. The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. We are not financial advisors. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Do your own research when making a decision. See our important security disclaimers here. 

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