🧘‍♂️ALERT: New Altcoin Breakout?

Market Meditations | March 21, 2022

Dear Meditators

Risk markets trading sideways early Monday, with disappointment across the board regarding China’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Ethereum is all the noise with the expectation that the proof-of-stake mechanism will have bullish implications for Ether.

Today’s Meditations: 

  • ETH and RUNE Technical Analysis
    • Check out the RUNE section to read about whether we have a new altcoin breakout
  • Ethereum Fundamentals Deep Dive
  • A Big Lie About Cardano
  • Crypto Calendar for the Week

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⏰ Top Headlines


? Barely Br-ETH-Ing 

ETH/USD

Macro Structure: Recently rejected just below the $3k level. Price has been ranging for a while, with $3k being the top of the range.

Key Support: $2.4k, or the lower bound of the range.

Key Resistance: $3k. Even above here, there are several levels of resistance and significant resistance at $3.6k.

Looking Forward: Wouldn’t be surprising to see us continue to the bottom of the range ($2.4k level). Not ideal trading conditions for most people given the lack of volatility and trends. More advanced traders thrive in these conditions. For instance, shorting the top of the range at $3k would have worked well.

RUNE/USD

Macro Structure: Seeing a breakout and a clear short-medium term uptrend. The daily Moving Averages are also all about to cross over.

Looking Forward: In better market conditions, 3 strategies would come to mind:

  1. Breakout play. Above the $10 psychological level.
  2. High-Risk Bounce. At around the 0.382 level. For as long the price is above the 0.382 level, the situation looks more bullish.
  3. Bounce Play. Around the $6 level. A bounce play involves a quick buy followed by a sell.

However, these market conditions are difficult to navigate. Any continuation is at the mercy of the macro market.


❓Where’s The ETH?

The presence of Ethereum (ETH) is in shorter supply than usual.

Since the start of the year, nearly 550,000 ETH, worth around $1.6 billion, has left centralized exchanges. The exodus of Ether from exchanges moved the overall net-Ether balance to 21.72 million, down almost 10 million since June of 2020.

  • Over 30% of this year’s withdrawals came last week. This marks the lowest amount of ETH kept with crypto exchanges since September 2018.
  • Typically, outflows from centralized exchanges reveal investors’ intention to hold the asset in question, rather than sell it.
  • This increase in ETH withdrawal seems to partially line up with an increase in Lido’s liquid staking featureas 190,000 Ether moved into staking pools on the platform.
  • Over 1 million ETH has been added to the Ethereum 2.0 contract, with the possibility of more to follow exiting the active supply growing.

When investors are anticipating a need to sell ETH, we usually see inflows into centralized exchanges. This is in preparation to quickly take advantage of favorable selling conditions should they arise. The opposite is true of outflows from these exchanges.

To explore more about Lido and liquid staking, have a look at our introduction here.


⛔ Rumors of Cardano Burn Mechanism are False 

Cardano was one of the best performers in the top 10 [by market cap] recording 13% profits over the past week. This price bump comes after a rumor that Cardano was looking to implement a burn mechanism. These rumors have turned out to be false, but let’s nevertheless take a closer look at the Cardano ecosystem!

  • Rumors started circulating when Alesna tweeted and said that since no one took Charles Hoskinsons’ challenge to build a Cardano burn smart contract, he would take it into his own hands. We would come to find out this was only a joke.
  • Hoskinson even responded with a meme signifying this mechanism was not going to happen.

So no burning mechanism. Does this mean that Cardano will dip back down this week? Not exactly…

  • Data shared by Hoskinson suggests that Cardano has been expanding since it introduced smart contracts.
  • There are currently over 500 projects on the network.

Though rumors can be misleading, we must take a step back since there are times when fundamentals will back a move such as the one we saw with Cardano. Cardano is still growing with many creators looking to launch projects on the network. Remember to not believe everything you read and do your due diligence before any investment!


Monday, 21 March

  • Osmosis Proposal 176

    Official voting for proposal 176 aimed at offsetting carbon footprint by buying and retiring Nature Carbon Tons (NCT’s) ends.

  • ?️ Game Developers Conference 

    The 2022 Game Developers Conference in San Francisco begins, running from 21-25 March. The conference features a number of different blockchain players including WAX, Alien Worlds, The Sandbox, Star Atlas and more.

  • THORChain Hard Fork

    The first hard fork in THORChain’s history takes place today. Successfully implemented on the stagenet, TC developers claim it’s a more agile system than regular Cosmos hard forks.

Tuesday, 22 March

  • ?❄️ Avalanche Summit

    The Avalanche Summit will begin Tuesday in Barcelona, Spain. Speakers on a variety of projects like Yield Yak, Chainlink integration and market making will take place until Friday, 25 March.

Wednesday, 23 March

  • World Blockchain Summit

    Events such as a pitch competition, an investor dinner, investor connects and more will occur in Dubai from 23-24 March.

Thursday, 24 March

  • ⭐ My Neighbor Alice AMA

    Community FAQ with the CEO of Antler Interact and CMO of My Neighbor Alice, Lenny Pettersson, will participate in an AMA at 9am UTC this Thursday.

Friday, 25 March

  • Central Bank Digital Currency Seminar

    Governor Christopher J. Waller to host a talk in the series Central Banking and Digital Currencies addressing the question if central banks should issue digital currencies live on Youtube


  1. Watch our How to Get Rich Trading Crypto Course if you struggled with today’s technical section.
  2. Read the following Technical Analysis guides for more insight:
    1. Moving Averages 
    2. Fibonacci Retracement  
    3. Volume and Open Interest  

Today’s technical analysis focused on RUNE, the native utility token of ThorChain. In Thursday’s newsletter, we will share a beginner’s guide to ThorChain.

THORChain is a decentralized liquidity protocol that allows users to easily exchange cryptocurrency assets across a range of networks without losing full custody of their assets in the process.


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??‍♂️✍️ Stories in this newsletter were written by Kyle F., Misael Calleja, Nick T., Max P., Kimia K., Ellen B. and Koroush AK. Graphics were produced by Ellen B.


Not financial or tax advice. The content in this newsletter is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. We are not financial advisors. Every investment and trading move involves risk. Do your own research when making a decision. See our important security disclaimers here.

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